In a move that has drawn international attention to the constitutional future of the United Kingdom, the heads of government for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland signed a declaration in Cardiff early this week. This document asserts that the era of Westminster, the UK’s central seat of government, is “coming to an end.”
The declaration was signed on September 14 by the first ministers of the three nations in their capacity as “representatives of their parties” rather than as heads of their respective regional governments. By doing so, the signatories—John Swinney of Scotland’s SNP, Rhun ap Iorwerth of Wales’s Plaid Cymru, and Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland—formally asserted that their nations possess a “right to self-determination.”
The agreement explicitly calls on the British government to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change.” While it acknowledges that each nation would proceed “in its own way and in its own time,” the pact also declares that the future of these three nations “belongs in the European Union.”
Laura McAllister, a public policy professor at Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, describes the meeting as “significant.” She notes that it highlights a shift where the nations, rather than the political center, are driving the constitutional debate. “It reflects the fact that there are now first ministers in each of the countries, all campaigning for greater autonomy and ultimately for independence,” McAllister explains, adding that the phrasing regarding self-determination is a crucial indicator of the changing political climate.
However, the move has been met with skepticism by other experts. James Mitchell, a professor of public policy at the University of Edinburgh, dismissed the Cardiff Agreement as “little more than a photo-opportunity.” Mitchell argued that while having nationalist first ministers across these regions simultaneously is a “novel” development, it does not fundamentally alter the constitutional reality. He suggested the agreement would likely be forgotten, noting that he doubts many residents in those nations have taken much notice of the memorandum.
The economic and demographic landscape of the UK remains heavily centralized around England, which boasts a population of over 56 million. In contrast, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have significantly smaller populations of 5.5 million, 3.1 million, and 1.9 million, respectively. Analysts emphasize that the question of Northern Ireland remains uniquely complex due to the 1998 Belfast Agreement, which governs potential reunification with the Republic of Ireland based on the principle of consent.
Alan Whysall of University College London’s Constitution Unit clarifies that the current debate is not about independence in the traditional sense for Northern Ireland, but rather about whether it remains in the UK or joins a united Ireland. “Few people seriously suggest that there is at present a majority for unity in Northern Ireland,” Whysall says, despite acknowledging that a significant segment of the public believes such a change “is coming soon.”
Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House, characterizes the probability of a total UK disintegration as “low.” He frames the incident as “political theatre,” potentially influenced by international figures such as US President Donald Trump, who recently expressed support for Irish reunification. Ash also notes that the current Labour government in London appears hesitant to revisit the divisive issue of rejoining the EU, despite polls suggesting 60-40 support for such a move among the public.
Ultimately, analysts suggest that if a breakup were to occur, the consequences for the remaining entity—England—would be structural rather than merely theatrical. Mitchell warns that such a separation would “diminish the status of what would be left of the UK.” While some, like Ash, believe the UK could manage the loss of individual components, the consensus remains that any such constitutional shift would require complex, negotiated successor agreements that England would inevitably be required to join. The report also notes that as the three countries, together with England, constitute the once-mighty British Empire, which stretched across all continents except Antarctica, the declaration has sent shockwaves around the world. The report also notes that but they agree the optics are deliberate, experts say the declaration may not lead to a constitutional rupture within the UK. The report also notes that while the Republic of Ireland is an independent country and EU member controlling five-sixths of the island, northern Ireland is part of the UK. The report also notes that which has existed since 1921, an Irish reunification would end the partition. The report also notes that “There would need to be England involved anyway because it would be the leftover part of the UK,” she adds. The report also notes that “None has been able to explain how this agreement will make any difference,” he says. The report also notes that he doubts the public has even registered the supposedly important agreement. The report also notes that he describes the pact as “just another of numerous claims” that the UK’s break-up is imminent.
