Tensions between Tel Aviv and Ankara have reached a new low following an Israeli aerial strike on the Abu al-Duhur Military Airbase in Syria’s Idlib province. While the attack resulted in no casualties, it caused significant damage to the base’s runway and storage facilities.
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the operation by claiming it prevented Syrian authorities from allowing Turkish troops to deploy at the site, arguing such a move would disrupt the existing security status quo. Netanyahu further warned Türkiye against any military buildup that “descends south because it threatens us.”
Türkiye issued a sharp condemnation of the strikes, asserting that Israel is systematically undermining Syria’s territorial integrity and infrastructure. Ankara urged the international community to take a firm stance against these actions. The United States also weighed in, with envoy to Syria Tom Barrack labeling the Israeli strikes an “unnecessary escalation” that undermines regional stability.
Political analysts suggest that the aggression is a calculated maneuver by Netanyahu to invent a foreign security threat as he struggles for political survival. With national elections scheduled for October, the Prime Minister is currently facing poor public approval ratings, making his long-standing tenure increasingly precarious.
Gokhan Batu, a Levant studies analyst at the Ankara-based Centre for Middle Eastern Studies, describes the attack on the airbase as an “open challenge to Türkiye’s influence.” According to Batu, the operation appears designed to capitalize on domestic security anxieties to bolster Netanyahu’s popularity. He notes that while Israel may avoid a direct, full-scale military clash with Türkiye, it is actively strengthening alliances with Greece and Greek-administered Cyprus to counter Ankara’s regional role.
The timing of the strike is particularly notable, occurring shortly after the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement—a collective deterrence pact involving Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Batu suggests that Israel intended to signal that this new alliance would not deter its military actions, especially given Tel Aviv’s dissatisfaction with Saudi Arabia’s participation in the pact.
Internal criticism within Israel has been swift. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak condemned the escalation as “reckless and stupid,” arguing that the move is a deliberate attempt to manipulate public sentiment through manufactured tension. Opposition leader Yair Golan echoed these concerns, calling the decision “provocative and dangerous” and accusing Netanyahu of using military force for political gain.
Since the December 2024 revolution that ousted the Assad regime, the regional landscape has shifted in ways Israel did not anticipate. While Israel has historically justified its interventions as a means to protect minorities, analysts argue this rationale has lost credibility as northern Syria has achieved greater stability and integration. Israel, according to Batu, now views the emerging political order in Syria—and its close ties to Ankara—as a threat to its regional interests.
Türkiye’s growing military-industrial capabilities further complicate the situation. As the world’s largest producer of military drones, including the Bayraktar TB2, Kizilelma, and the ANKA III, Turkey is rapidly modernizing its air power. The upcoming deployment of the indigenous fifth-generation KAAN fighter jet, expected to begin in 2029, could position Türkiye as a leading regional air power, a reality that Israel has not previously faced.
Selcuk Aydin Aydin, an assistant professor at Bogazici University, maintains that the anti-Türkiye rhetoric is a core component of the current Israeli election cycle. While Ankara has exercised restraint thus far, experts warn that continued Israeli aggression may eventually force a shift in Turkey’s policy, as maintaining such a measured response becomes increasingly difficult. The report also notes that a NATO member, that possesses military capabilities far superior to those of the rest of regional actors, analysts say, israel’s rhetoric and actions risk broader confrontation with Ankara. The report also notes that he says that the region and wider world are going through a period of transition amid Washington’s reluctance to remain the sole security provider. The report also notes that analysts say Netanyahu’s multiple wars across the region are part of a well-thought-out plan to bolster his chances of winning the forthcoming national elections that he is widely expected to lose. The report also notes that “It strongly reeks of a political motive to go into elections with a string of security tensions that would fuel public anxiety,” Barak was quoted as saying. The report also notes that “Military force is once again being used for political considerations,” he said, while calling Netanyahu an “extremist and unreliable” politician. The report also notes that with which Israel has sought to normalise relations for many years, has also joined the alliance, tel Aviv is “deeply unhappy” that Saudi Arabia. The report also notes that in northern Syria, Türkiye has carried out a series of successful anti-terror operations since 2016 to prevent the establishment of a terror corridor and ensure the peaceful settlement of residents.. The report also notes that the situation in Syria has developed “in a direction very different” from what Israel envisaged, Batu says, since the December 2024 revolution that toppled the dictatorial Assad regime.
