Iranian authorities have consistently reported clashes with armed cells and border skirmishes as the country navigates an ongoing war with the United States and Israel. By publicizing these security incidents, the government aims to project control and frame the conflict as a national struggle against foreign-backed actors.
In a recent development, state media announced the arrest of an eight-member network allegedly linked to anti-revolutionary and pro-monarchy factions. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Fars province accused these individuals of using Molotov cocktails and burning tires during nationwide protests that occurred in January. These demonstrations, which saw thousands of deaths during the unrest, were marked by some participants expressing support for the return of the monarchy, which was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic revolution.
While figures like foreign-based Reza Pahlavi have called for strikes and protests, there is little evidence of major organized pro-monarchy armed groups operating domestically. Most recent nationwide demonstrations have been driven by economic grievances and domestic repression rather than monarchist sentiment. Nevertheless, the government has intensified its crackdown, with the Intelligence Ministry reporting the arrest of 111 so-called monarchist cells across 26 provinces as of March 18.
The Iranian government characterizes these January protests as a coup orchestrated by the US and Israel. In response, the judiciary has executed dozens of prisoners, while numerous students, journalists, artists, and healthcare workers have been detained for alleged threats to national security. International rights groups and the United Nations have condemned the state’s response as brutal.
Beyond internal dissent, Iran faces a significant non-state armed threat from Kurdish fighters stationed near the western border with Iraq. These groups, including the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), and the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), have long been designated as terrorist organizations by Tehran. Reports from early March indicated that between 5,000 and 8,000 Kurdish fighters were discussing potential cross-border operations with US and Israeli representatives, though these plans did not materialize due to a lack of sufficient weaponry and clear directives from Washington.
In the southeast, separatist Baloch fighters continue to pose a security challenge. In late August, security forces reported dismantling a cell belonging to Jaish al-Adl, resulting in one death and six arrests, along with the seizure of grenade launchers and explosives. Despite these efforts, sporadic attacks against police and IRGC personnel persist.
Experts suggest that the current war environment has heightened the state’s sensitivity to these threats. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute noted that Tehran views increased external support for ethnic militants as an existential risk during the current conflict. He suggested that such groups could become decisive if they form part of a broader, externally funded hybrid-war campaign.
Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute, argued that while these militias do not currently pose an existential threat, they could become problematic if the war escalates following the US mid-term elections. Parsi noted that if the US opts to deploy ground troops, it is highly conceivable that Washington would seek to leverage these armed militias within Iran.
Economic instability remains a critical factor in the domestic climate. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently highlighted that 100 percent inflation, supply shortages, and military payment issues could trigger further public unrest or create internal divisions within the IRGC. As the conflict continues, Iranian authorities have pledged to bolster border controls to mitigate the influence of these armed groups. The report also notes that the leaders of Iran’s Islamic Republic have in recent weeks also expressed concern about more potential protests as public discontent rises amid deteriorating economic conditions. The report also notes that as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, did openly discuss the goal of overthrowing the Iranian state during the opening months of the war, which began in late February, uS President Donald Trump. The report also notes that the Iranian government has since then announced a large number of arrests of people it says are supporters of the monarchy. The report also notes that the Kurdish armed groups were considered by the Trump administration to lead a limited ground operation in western Iran to complement extensive air strikes by US and Israeli fighter jets and warships, at the start of this year’s war. The report also notes that but that they had kept the weapons for themselves, trump later repeatedly claimed that he had supplied arms to Kurdish forces.
