Houthi forces have secured full control over Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, reaching the vital Bab al-Mandeb shipping corridor following a rapid offensive that concluded on Friday. The capture of the port city of Mocha on Thursday represents a significant tactical blow to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, marking a major escalation in the regional conflict.
Analysts view these gains as the most consequential development since the United States and Israel entered into war with Iran in February. The Houthis, who previously announced a maritime blockade against Saudi-flagged vessels, now exert substantial influence over the Bab al-Mandeb waterway. This narrow strait is a critical global artery, with approximately 12 percent of international trade passing through it daily.
The strategic importance of this route has surged since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled about 20 percent of global energy supplies. As a result, Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on its East-West Crude Oil Pipeline to transport oil from the Abqaiq field to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Since the February war, the kingdom has increased this pipeline’s capacity to seven million barrels per day, up from five million, leading to a 21 percent increase in Saudi oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb.
Experts warn that Houthi control of this corridor could exacerbate the global energy crisis by driving up prices and restricting supplies. While the Saudis have not confirmed damage to the pipeline, images from Friday appeared to show smoke rising from the infrastructure, which had been targeted by Houthi drone strikes in 2019.
Yemen has remained in a state of conflict since 2014, when Houthi rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, and the port of Hodeidah, forcing the government to retreat. Saudi Arabia intervened in 2015 to support the internationally recognized government, and despite a 2022 UN-brokered truce, intermittent fighting has persisted. A new, intense wave of clashes erupted last week, with Saudi forces launching dozens of missiles at Houthi-held areas like Mocha in a failed attempt to halt the group’s advance.
Regarding the balance of power, Yemeni government forces are estimated at 300,000 personnel, while the Houthis command approximately 250,000. Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, noted that the current Houthi fighting force is significantly more advanced than the one Saudi Arabia faced a decade ago, bolstered by years of access to Iranian missiles, drones, and air defense systems.
However, Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, expressed skepticism regarding the group’s long-term sustainability. He suggested that while the Houthis are effective in combat, they struggle with governance and may find it difficult to maintain a permanent blockade. Nevertheless, he noted that the mere perception of danger is often sufficient to deter shipping companies and insurance firms from entering the strait.
The situation has placed immense pressure on Washington as rising fuel and food costs impact domestic politics ahead of the November mid-term elections. Alam Saleh, a professor of international relations at the Australian National University, argued that the Houthi success effectively grants Iran control over both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb. He stated that by playing the card of energy security, Iran has gained a significant advantage in its stalemate with the United States.
Saleh further observed that the Houthi victory signals a potential decline in US military influence in the Middle East, a message not lost on global powers like China and Russia. As the US continues to rely on a strategy of strikes and economic pressure, it faces a narrowing window to shift the regional dynamics in its favor. The report also notes that intermittent clashes have occurred since then, although a UN truce in 2022 halted fighting. The report also notes that the narrow strait is one of the world’s most important shipping lanes connecting the Suez Canal and Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The report also notes that the pipeline has been active since the 1980s and was purpose-built to avoid disruption in Hormuz. The report also notes that it was temporarily shut down during Houthi drone attacks in 2019. The report also notes that but much reduced shipping volumes suggest Iran has the upper hand, observers say, both Iran and the US claim to be in control of the Strait of Hormuz. The report also notes that with voters expected to show their anger towards Republicans in the November mid-term elections, it also increases pressure on Washington as surging petrol and food prices have already made the war highly unpopular.
