Saudi Arabia has suspended operations on its vital 1,200km (746-mile) East-West oil pipeline following a drone attack last Thursday. The infrastructure, known as the Petroline, is essential for transporting 4 to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) from eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, serving as a critical alternative to the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran in February.
Energy ministry officials described the shutdown as a precautionary move after the strikes caused damage and injuries in the Medina and Riyadh regions. While the extent of the damage is still being evaluated, sources familiar with the situation informed Reuters that repairs could span five to six weeks, though other reports suggest a potential for a faster restoration of services.
Investigations by Saudi authorities traced the drone launch to the Maysan province in southeastern Iraq. The area is located near the Iranian border and hosts several long-standing, Iran-aligned armed groups. This incident follows a similar, albeit less damaging, strike in March near the Saudi-Aramco-ExxonMobil refinery in Yanbu, which briefly disrupted exports before operations normalized.
The closure places extreme pressure on a global market already grappling with severely constrained supply chains. Before the current conflict, the Strait of Hormuz facilitated the transport of over 20 million bpd, or one-fifth of global oil; industry estimates now place that figure significantly lower at 6 to 9 million bpd. Saudi Arabia had been utilizing the East-West pipeline to mitigate these disruptions, moving 4 to 5 million bpd toward the Red Sea.
Current logistical buffers are limited. Estimates suggest that Yanbu holds enough stock to sustain exports for only five to seven days, with supplementary support available from Egyptian storage facilities in Sidi Kerir and Ain Sukhna for a short period. This vulnerability arrives as the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that Saudi supply reached a three-decade low in August, with total global supplies projected to decline by 5.7 million bpd this year.
While strategic reserves and existing stockpiles have kept Brent crude prices within a $70-$90 range recently, experts warn that prolonged outages could deplete these defenses rapidly. The IEA noted in June that continued reliance on drawdowns could push inventories to critical lows, potentially driving Brent prices to as high as $150 a barrel.
Industry analysts at Gavekal Research emphasized the severity of the threat, noting that if Yanbu—which processes over one million bpd—remains offline due to the ongoing drone activity from Houthi forces, it would be a disaster for the world at a time when global refining capacity is already critically tight. The report also notes that and estimates of how quickly the pipeline can return to normal operations vary, the extent of the damage is not yet clear. The report also notes that with shipments recovering within days, but it demonstrated that the kingdom’s western oil infrastructure was not immune to attacks, that incident had little lasting impact on operations. The report also notes that also known as the Petroline, is a 1,200km (745-mile) long oil pipeline built in 1981 that carries crude oil from the kingdom’s eastern oil fields near Abqaiq across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, the East-West pipeline. The report also notes that although actual flows have been lower in recent months – about two million bpd in August according to Kpler – the lowest monthly level since January as Houthi attacks made the Red Sea route difficult to use, it has a maximum capacity of seven million bpd. The report also notes that that represents about 4 to 5 percent of global supply and allowed the world’s second largest oil exporter to bypass the Strait of Hormuz when shipping conditions deteriorated.
