Sweden’s centre-left opposition appears to have gained an early advantage in the general election, with public broadcaster SVT’s exit polls projecting they will capture 51.3 percent of the vote. The right-wing bloc, led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, is currently trailing with an estimated 46.8 percent. A second exit poll released by TV4 has corroborated the trend, also placing the centre-left parties in front as official counting begins following the close of polls at 18:00 GMT on Sunday.
While these early projections offer a snapshot of voter sentiment, historical precedent cautions against treating them as definitive. In the 2022 general election, exit polls incorrectly forecasted a victory for the centre-left coalition led by Magdalena Andersson. That contest eventually resulted in a win for Kristersson’s four-party conservative alliance, which continues to hold power today.
The current race represents a significant tightening from earlier in the campaign. Months ago, polls suggested the Social Democrats—headed by Andersson—enjoyed a comfortable lead of roughly 10 percentage points. That gap eroded significantly in the final weeks, narrowing to a margin of just two to three points, as the competition between the left-wing bloc and Kristersson’s alliance intensified.
The stakes of this election extend beyond domestic policy, as it arrives during a period of electoral success for right-wing movements across Europe. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) recently secured 44 percent of the vote in a key state election, placing a party with roots in that nation’s history within striking distance of state-level power. A victory for the Swedish centre-left would provide a notable contrast to this regional trend.
Should the exit polls prove inaccurate, the election could pave the way for the Sweden Democrats to enter the government for the first time. The party, which has historical roots in the neo-Nazi movement, garnered 20.5 percent of the vote in 2022. While they have served as the primary parliamentary support for Kristersson’s current minority government, they have remained outside of the cabinet. Kristersson noted in April that he would be willing to invite the party into a formal governing coalition if the right-wing bloc secured a majority, a move that would be effectively blocked if the current centre-left lead is confirmed by official results. The report also notes that while often indicative of the outcome, have not always proven accurate, swedish exit polls. The report also notes that turning what had looked like a relatively predictable election into a much closer contest, but the race tightened steadily in the final weeks of the race.
