Tehran is currently evaluating its military response to a new wave of US economic measures, which President Donald Trump recently described as the “most crushing economic operation” ever faced by the country. The administration in Washington has explicitly stated that these sanctions are intended to “collapse” the Iranian government through unprecedented isolation and economic warfare.
In response to these mounting threats, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander-in-chief Ahmad Vahdi emphasized that Iran must pursue intelligent solutions to neutralize enemy plots. Meanwhile, during the National Day of Defence Industry, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Ali Abdollahi touted a “deterrent defensive industrial revolution” within the nation’s domestic weapons sector.
Despite these claims of progress, Iranian authorities have refrained from publicly exhibiting new hardware. Ministry of Defence spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik explained that the military is limiting public unveilings to protect defensive secrets and surprise adversaries. Talaei-Nik asserted that in the year following the 12-day conflict with the US and Israel in June 2025, Iran doubled its production of defensive equipment. He further claimed that since the current war began on February 28, the manufacturing of strategic products has more than tripled, supported by a network of over 9,300 companies.
The scale of the damage remains a point of contention. The White House maintains that 85 percent of Iran’s defence-industrial base has been destroyed, including the majority of its long-range drones, mobile launchers, and ballistic missiles. US assessments also claim that 150 Iranian warships were sunk, along with the entirety of the nation’s submarine fleet and 97 percent of its naval-mine inventory. However, a confidential US intelligence assessment from May suggested that Iran retained roughly 75 percent of its mobile launchers and 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile.
Experts suggest that Iran’s ability to maintain production stems from geographically dispersed, underground facilities that have largely evaded US airstrikes. While overground manufacturing lines have suffered significant losses, these hidden bases continue to function. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi confirmed that development has not ceased, promising that future conflicts will see the deployment of next-generation ballistic and cruise missile warheads.
The military landscape remains volatile. Following a truce that began on April 8 after 40 days of intense aerial bombardment, US strikes in July signaled a potential shift toward ground operations in southern Iran. Acting Defence Minister Majid Ebn-e Reza noted that Iranian forces have achieved greater strike accuracy and deeper penetration of enemy bases compared to previous engagements. Furthermore, the IRGC and the Iranian army continued to launch drones and missiles at US bases and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz even after subsequent July bombardments, albeit at a reduced frequency.
Iran’s asymmetric tactics have also yielded specific results. While its ageing air force and primary air defenses struggled against US, Israeli, and Arab incursions, smaller man-portable and heat-seeking systems have successfully downed an F-15 fighter jet. Additionally, reports indicate that at least 45 advanced US MQ-9 Reaper drones—roughly a quarter of the fleet valued at over $1.3bn—have been lost to Iranian fire or technical failures.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint. Although President Trump declared the waterway US territory, Iranian missile and fast-boat attacks continue to suppress oil flows below pre-war levels. Similar disruptions are occurring in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, where Iran-aligned Houthi forces remain active. With no meaningful diplomatic dialogue between Tehran and Washington, the prospect of a peaceful resolution to the conflict appears distant. The report also notes that authorities opted not to exhibit new arms, but as happened last year. The report also notes that which took hold on April 8, followed nearly 40 days of intense bombing and involved thousands of flight sorties, the truce between the US and Iran. The report also notes that cheaper and easier-to-make explosive drones have helped Iran consume a large number of US interceptors, reveal radar positions, force airports or energy sites to suspend operations, and create disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to the more complex and costly ballistic missiles.
