The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has achieved a significant electoral milestone, nearly doubling its support to 43.8% in the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The party, which has faced scrutiny for its use of Nazi-adjacent imagery and its controversial distinction between “biological” and “passport” Germans, remains a polarizing force. Even Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right, has previously distanced herself from the AfD’s extreme positions. Despite this, the result marks the closest a far-right party has come to governing a German state since the end of the second world war.
The traditional political establishment suffered a sharp decline in the same contest. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s centre-right CDU fell to 17.2%, less than half of its performance five years ago, while the centre-left SPD managed only 9.3%. With 39 seats in the 83-member parliament, the AfD falls just short of an outright majority, leaving its path to forming a government uncertain. This is particularly notable given that the state’s domestic intelligence service officially classifies the local AfD branch as a “confirmed rightwing extremist” entity.
While Saxony-Anhalt has long been a stronghold for the far right—with support levels consistently doubling the national average over the last decade—the result has sent shock waves across the continent. Nationalists have hailed the outcome as a “historic win” and a sign of things to come, while mainstream leaders have characterized it as a “grave moment” for Europe. Analysts like Tarik Abou-Chadi of Oxford University caution against over-interpreting the result, noting that the state contains only 1.8 million voters and should not be viewed as a definitive barometer for national German electoral sociology.
Nevertheless, the AfD’s momentum is evident in national polling, and it remains competitive in other regions, including Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and even the liberal stronghold of Berlin. This reflects a decade-long shift across Europe. Research led by Matthijs Rooduijn of the University of Amsterdam indicates that nearly one in four European voters now supports far-right parties. Data from over 150 political scientists across 31 countries shows that the proportion of Europeans voting for these parties in national elections has climbed from roughly 5% in 1995 and 10% a decade ago to more than 23% in 2026.
The political landscape is increasingly fragmented. Far-right populist parties currently participate in ruling coalitions in countries including Italy, Finland, Croatia, and Czechia, while providing support to a rightwing minority government in Sweden. They also lead polls in nations such as Belgium, Austria, France, and Germany. While some parties have faced setbacks—such as Geert Wilders’s PVV in the Netherlands and Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary—experts like Cas Mudde of the University of Georgia argue that the far right has become an established fixture of the political landscape, with support levels that fluctuate much like those of traditional parties.
A central debate has emerged regarding the “cordon sanitaire,” or firewall, maintained by mainstream parties to prevent collaboration with the far right. Some commentators argue this strategy has failed or even backfired by shielding the AfD from the realities of governance, thereby allowing it to avoid the compromises that often diminish support for ruling parties. Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group suggests a “self-reinforcing political dynamic” where the hollowing out of the centre leads to unstable coalitions that accomplish little, ultimately fueling voter frustration and driving support toward the extremes.
Conversely, many political scientists contend that blaming the firewall is an ineffective excuse. Data from a study of more than 1,300 governments across 57 countries suggests that far-right parties do not necessarily weaken once they enter government; in many cases, they gain strength. As Austrian-Hungarian political scientist Gabriela Greilinger noted, the ongoing debate over the success of the cordon sanitaire may fundamentally miss the point regarding the underlying drivers of this electoral shift.
With legislative elections approaching in Sweden, followed by presidential and parliamentary contests in France, Italy, Spain, and Poland, the pressure on Europe’s centre is mounting. As the continent prepares for these upcoming ballots, the fear of a broader nationalist wave remains a primary concern for political observers and leaders alike. The report also notes that meanwhile, the centre-right CDU of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, collapsed to 17.2%, less than half its total in the same race five years ago, and the centre-left SPD – Germany’s other main party of government for the past 60-odd years – scraped 9.3%. The report also notes that the least that can be said is that the centre did not hold. The report also notes that france faces a crunch presidential ballot next spring. The report also notes that as well as in Italy, Spain and Poland, later in the year, key parliamentary races will follow there. The report also notes that “The weaker the election results, the less common ground in the coalition, the fewer the policy results. The report also notes that however, say blaming the firewall is an excuse, and data suggests far-right parties do not in any case get weaker when they are in government, but become stronger: one recent study of more than 1,300 different governments in 57 countries found far-right parties that entered government averaged a score six percentage points higher come the next election, many political scientists. The report also notes that it is above all the gradual mainstreaming and normalisation of the far right’s ideas that has driven – and continues to drive – its steady advance, political scientists argue, besides the persistent inability of mainstream governments to deliver for disillusioned voters hit by a spiralling cost of living crisis.
