Updates and Reports
- Israeli elections: live updates
- Full report: Coalition talks loom as Israel exit polls suggest Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs tied
- Israel election: what we know so far
Substantial gains by Palestinian factions in Israel’s general election present an immediate challenge for the mainstream opposition, forcing a choice between engaging Arab Israelis or handing Benjamin Netanyahu a path to political survival. Following exit polls, opposition bloc leader Gadi Eisenkot framed the results as a win for Israel’s Zionist national majority, though the ultimate outcome appears significantly more complex. That redraws the battle lines on Israel’s political landscape. To do so, however, he and his partners in the “change” bloc would be obliged to sit down to talk with the Palestinian groupings, the Joint List and Ra’am (an acronym for the United Arab List).
The most striking shift in the incoming Knesset is the surge in representation for Palestinian parties, projected to capture 17 to 18 seats compared to their previous 10.
This realignment means Arab Israelis cannot be easily sidelined from the political process. Exit polls indicate a dead heat between Eisenkot’s opposition alliance and Netanyahu’s governing coalition, with neither side securing the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat parliament. Neither side has enough to get 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament for a majority, though the prime minister’s Likud party could still be the strongest single party.
If official tallies confirm the tie, President Isaac Herzog will determine who gets the initial opportunity to form a government. A failure to succeed within six weeks passes the mandate to another candidate, potentially initiating a lengthy process during which Netanyahu’s cabinet would remain in a caretaker capacity. Eisenkot could attempt to negotiate a majority, but such an effort demands dialogue with the Joint List and Ra’am.
Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas may prove more approachable, having previously joined Naftali Bennett’s right-leaning administration. Abbas stated his priority is removing Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir. However, projected exit polls give Ra’am only seven seats, which might fall short of securing a majority even with allied backing. They would probably find Ra’am and its leader, Mansour Abbas, easier to talk to.
Engaging the Joint List, projected to win 11 or more seats, presents steeper hurdles. Eisenkot has outlined four strict prerequisites: formal recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, acceptance of the declaration of independence, mandatory conscription for Palestinian Israeli citizens, and a public denunciation of Hamas as a terrorist organization.
Amjad Shbita, general secretary of Hadash, dismissed the possibility of dictated terms during vote counting on Tuesday. He emphasized that negotiations must happen on equal footing because both sides depend on each other. Lacking a formal pact with Palestinian factions, Eisenkot might attempt to run a minority government supported by ad-hoc, vote-by-vote agreements. It is possible that Eisenkot could try to govern as a minority government, with informal vote-by-vote agreements that would keep the new coalition afloat, in the absence of an agreement with one or both of the Palestinian groupings.
Such instability could trigger another election, giving Netanyahu an opening to mobilize conservative voters using his campaign slogan equating the choice to the Right or Palestine. Despite facing political defeats across three decades, Netanyahu has repeatedly engineered remarkable comebacks. A successful return this time would rely on political rivals extending a lifeline rather than forging historic compromises across deep racial divides. And staged a comeback each time with the aid of his unparalleled tactical skills as a dealmaker, netanyahu has looked beaten before over his three decades at or near the top. No one is yet ruling out another breathtaking political escape.
At a Joint List event in Nazareth early Wednesday, a party official remarked that the Zionist opposition must decide between supremacy and building democracy.
