As Washington seeks ways to navigate the prolonged Gulf standoff, countries across the Middle East are increasingly looking beyond the Strait of Hormuz. From Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Iraq, Syria, and Türkiye, governments are exploring alternative land routes capable of sustaining energy exports and commerce. Analysts suggest that if the crisis persists, this gradual shift towards these corridors could weaken Iran’s leverage over global energy markets while reshaping the political and economic geography of the region.
Dania Koleilat Khatib, an expert in US-Arab relations and co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, notes that the region is actively moving away from its dependence on the narrow waterway. “Hormuz will become less and less important,” Khatib tells. She emphasizes that regional powers are prioritizing stability over confrontation. “It’s much better to have alternative routes than to have a fight with Iran on Hormuz because the military conflict with Iran does not guarantee any concrete result even with the US involvement,” she says.
Khatib further explains the strategic motivation behind this pivot: “The US will also encourage alternative routes and the Middle East will turn to alternative corridors because the region does not want to be subject to Iran’s blackmail.” This sentiment is reflected in new diplomatic and security alignments. Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, the two heavyweights of the Middle East alongside Pakistan, have recently signed a military pact signalling their intention to develop alternative strategic avenues to defend regional interests with indigenous forces against any potential threat from Israel, Iran, or any outsiders.
The region is not starting from scratch. Saudi Arabia and the UAE already operate pipelines that allow part of their oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with a combined capacity of nearly 10 million barrels per day—roughly half the volume that passed through the waterway before the current crisis. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline transports crude from the kingdom’s eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, providing Riyadh with an alternative export route that avoids the Gulf. The pipeline can transport between 1.5 and 1.8 million barrels per day.
The UAE has also invested in bypass infrastructure through the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which links Abu Dhabi’s oil fields to the Gulf of Oman. However, neither country considers its existing infrastructure sufficient. Saudi Arabia is currently considering expanding its pipeline network to connect with neighbouring Gulf producers or building new export routes. Chris Newton, a senior analyst at Inter-Regional, notes the vulnerability of these assets: “Several of the best alternatives for crude oil—Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah line—have performed well despite being within range of Iran’s weapons, though that could change any time.”
The threat is not merely theoretical. During the war, Iran has targeted both UAE and Saudi oil facilities from Fujairah to Yanbu, signalling that even the safety of alternative routes might be compromised and demonstrating how geography can become a deadly trap. Despite these risks, experts argue that the infrastructure remains vital. “Crude oil can probably be rerouted the most in the short-term, but other commodities like LNG less so,” Newton adds.
Not every Gulf state has the same room to manoeuvre. Unlike Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar lack alternative export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, leaving them more exposed to maritime disruptions. Analysts suggest those countries may eventually have to rely on Saudi or Emirati infrastructure to keep their energy exports flowing. Qatar could face particular challenges because its economy depends heavily on liquefied natural gas rather than crude oil exports, which are harder to transport via overland pipelines.
Beyond the Gulf, other regional players are expanding their own networks. Besides the Syria-Iraq talks, Ankara and Baghdad, the two neighbours that have operated the 970-kilometre Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline from central Iraq to Türkiye’s Mediterranean coast for decades, have recently signed a deal allowing crude to flow to global markets. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is Iraq’s largest crude export route, with a maximum capacity of up to 1.5 million bpd.
In the wake of Hormuz tensions, Iraq has also recently launched the Basra-Haditha pipeline project with a planned capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day. This project aims to transport crude oil not only to Syria’s Baniyas and Türkiye’s Ceyhan in the Mediterranean but also to potentially link with broader regional networks. Analysts note that these developments would also influence commercial relationships extending outside the region, as more Gulf energy flows to the Mediterranean, bringing it closer to European consumers.
The economic implications are significant for transit nations. The value of the Suez Canal and Egypt’s revenue could change depending on the corridors that actually get built and how that affects ship traffic. “If the value of Hormuz were reduced, Iran’s leverage over the region and the global economy would weaken to the extent that it was unable to threaten Hormuz alternatives,” analysts observe.
Despite the push for land-based solutions, the reality of global trade remains tethered to the sea. Around 80 percent of global commerce still moves by sea, making the complete bypassing of the Strait of Hormuz an unlikely prospect in the near future. Nevertheless, the strategic intent is clear. “They want overland routes to do the work that the ocean does,” says analyst Bruno. By investing in these corridors, regional states hope to reassure global markets that they are no longer solely dependent on a single, volatile maritime chokepoint.
Although developing alternative corridors around the Strait of Hormuz could cost between $50 million and $100 million and take years to complete, proponents argue that the investment is necessary for long-term security. By signalling a move toward indigenous, land-based energy transit, Middle Eastern nations are attempting to insulate their economies from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, effectively redrawing the map of regional energy security for the coming decades.
