With Israel’s national elections scheduled for October, a marked increase in settlement activity has raised alarms that the settler movement is intensifying its efforts to consolidate control over the occupied West Bank. This expansion occurs in direct opposition to international law, as hard-right factions seek to solidify their influence before voters head to the polls.
The United Nations recently issued a warning that violence involving Israeli settlers—frequently occurring with the support of Israeli forces—has reached an all-time high. This trend also encompasses a rapid rise in the establishment of unauthorized outposts and settlements.
The current political climate follows a parliamentary term marked by the state’s efforts to integrate West Bank control into civilian institutions, shifting authority away from military oversight to accelerate infrastructure development and planning. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a central figure in promoting the settler agenda, faces a challenging electoral path, with polls suggesting his Religious Zionist Party may struggle to meet the threshold for the next Knesset.
Analysts suggest this uncertainty has triggered a desperate push to advance the settlement mission while securing the loyalty of the settler base. During a late July meeting of the Likud Party, Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed that the governing coalition, under Smotrich’s guidance, has approved 104 illegal settlements and approximately 160 settlement farms in the West Bank since 2022.
Smotrich’s influence on policy remains significant. In 2023, he established the Settlements Administration within the Ministry of Defence to manage the occupation, a body he legally embedded within the ministry last month to complicate any future attempts to reverse its actions. Previously, in August 2025, he announced the E1 project, which aims to connect East Jerusalem with the Maale Adumim settlement, a move he described as something that “buries the idea of a Palestinian state.”
Political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg noted that while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to seek ways to keep the far-right on his ticket, Smotrich remains caught between the populism of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and the security-focused rhetoric of the Likud. Netanyahu, currently facing a corruption trial and an inquiry into the events of 2023, appears unwilling to risk losing the support of the settler movement, even as international pressure mounts.
Chatham House expert Yossi Mekelberg observed that Netanyahu’s strategy relies on the hard right to maintain his governing bloc. While Netanyahu has shown flexibility regarding ultra-Orthodox conscription, he views the settler issue as binary. “Netanyahu knows that the ultra-Orthodox will likely stay with him,” Mekelberg said. “The settlers are more binary. You’re either for them or against.”
The human cost of this political maneuvering has been severe. The Palestinian Authority’s Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission reported 2,256 attacks against Palestinians and their property in July alone, with 1,458 attributed to the Israeli military and 798 to settlers.
Internal political friction has also intensified. When opposition leader Yair Golan criticized settler “extremism” as a catalyst for violence, Katz labeled the comments a “blood libel.” Leaked reports from the same meeting indicate that other ministers advocated for a more aggressive military response to Palestinian resistance, including increased freedom for soldiers to use lethal force.
Yair Dvir of the rights group B’Tselem emphasized that the situation is deteriorating rapidly. “As the election gets closer, we’re seeing an even greater increase in the violence that’s been escalating ever since October 2023,” Dvir stated, noting that the brutality is compounded by the active participation and political backing of the state apparatus.
Smotrich, who made increased administrative control over the West Bank a condition for supporting Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition in 2022, has undertaken a series of measures to expand the influence of settlers within p
“He has very strong support within the settlements and the ideological far-right,” Flaschenberg added, “but that might not be enough in and of itself to get him securely past the threshold.
Allied to Smotrich is a prime minister who observers describe as facing not simply an electoral battle, but an existential battle for both his freedom – as a consequence of his long-running corruption trial – and legacy
The uptick comes as members of Israel’s hard right seek to ratchet up the political temperature ahead of the crucial polls.
Smotrich, who made increased administrative control over the West Bank a condition for supporting Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition in 2022, has undertaken a series of measures to expand the influence of settlers within policymaking.
Allied to Smotrich is a prime minister who observers describe as facing not simply an electoral battle, but an existential battle for both his freedom – as a consequence of his long-running corruption trial – and legacy, should the independent inquiry into his failings ahead of the Hamas-led attack of 2023 go ahead.
“We saw him come out on US TV and concede that there may have been a few incidents in the West Bank, but nothing serious,” Chatham House’s Yossi Mekelberg said of Netanyahu’s response to the widespread violence that has swept the West Bank in recent weeks.
Ultra-Orthodox parties, a key component in the 2022 coalition government, have made the exemption of their constituents from the draft – which almost all Israeli adults are eligible for – a pillar of their political campaigning in recent years.
Irrespective of electoral tactics, the consequences for people living in the occupied West Bank have been catastrophic.
