As of September 12, 2026, the Atlantic hurricane basin has not recorded a single hurricane, setting a new record for the latest start to a season in the modern era. While the season officially began on June 1 and extends through November 30, the lack of activity has left meteorologists noting the basin is as quiet as it gets for early September.
Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG-TV in South Florida, recently described the situation in his Substack blog, “Eye on the Tropics,” using the single word: “Crickets.” By this point in a typical year, the basin has usually seen about four hurricanes and multiple tropical storms. While there have been five tropical storms so far in 2026, the absence of hurricane-strength development remains a statistical anomaly.
Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, noted that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index—a metric based on the intensity and longevity of storms—is currently at 4.4. This represents the lowest value through September 10 since 1950. Contributing to this lack of intensity is an exceptionally strong El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which has generated record-breaking vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and the western tropical Atlantic.
Data indicates that this summer’s vertical wind shear has surpassed previous records. In early September, the average wind shear over a 30-day period was more than 3 knots stronger than any other year since the global satellite era began in 1979. This phenomenon creates atmospheric conditions that effectively batter and dismantle potential storm systems. The only other years to experience such high shear—1979, 1986, 1997, and 2015—also occurred during El Niño cycles.
Jhordanne Jones, an assistant professor of meteorology at Penn State, emphasized that El Niño is not the only factor at play. The region is experiencing a “double suppression” effect, with Saharan dust moving over the Atlantic while dry air creates unfavorable conditions for storm development. This dry pattern has contributed to widespread drought, including in Puerto Rico, where approximately 80% of the island is currently facing drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
While only 2002 and 2014—two seasons that both saw their first hurricane on September 11—have come close to this year’s duration without a hurricane, historical data before the 1966 satellite era remains incomplete. Meteorologists note that seasons in the early 1900s, such as 1907 and 1914, appear to have lacked hurricanes, though it is possible storms formed in open waters without being recorded. NOAA meteorologist Matthew Rosencrans explained that historical data relies on limited ship logs and land-based observations, which likely resulted in significant underestimation of early storm activity.
Despite the current inactivity, experts warn that a slow start does not preclude the arrival of dangerous storms later in the season. Matthew Rosencrans cautioned that significant losses and impactful storms can still occur following such delays. History supports this; for instance, the 2022 season saw its first hurricane, Danielle, form on September 2, yet it eventually produced major hurricanes including Fiona and Ian. The latter made landfall on the Southwest Florida coast on September 28, causing an estimated $113 billion in damage and 156 fatalities.
Similarly, the 2002 season saw Gustav form on September 11, followed by major hurricanes Isidore and Lili. Lili, which struck the Louisiana coast, resulted in more than $1 billion in damages and was described in the hurricane center’s final report as leaving a “trail of muck and misery.” With no immediate tropical cyclones visible on the National Hurricane Center forecast maps, the atmosphere remains largely hostile to development, but the season remains active for nearly three more months. The report also notes that however, when you start looking at hurricane history before 1966, scientists include a lot of caveats due to the limits of the data available. The report also notes that that doesn’t mean a dangerous hurricane couldn’t still crop up later this season, which began June 1 and ends Nov, even though a hurricane hasn’t formed yet this summer. The report also notes that it’s happened before after late starts to the season. The report also notes that how does the 2026 hurricane season compare to normal. The report also notes that including seven hurricanes, a typical season has 14 named storms. The report also notes that and those forecasts have been verified so far, seasonal outlooks predicted that the El Niño – a pattern of warmer-than-normal water along the equator – would limit the number of hurricanes this year. The report also notes that 27, forecasters said the effects of the shearing winds could be seen in satellite images, and the hurricane center predicted that it would be short-lived.
