Iran has claimed successful attacks on vessels, including US Navy ships, near the Strait of Hormuz, stating that these strikes have compelled Washington to reposition its warships further from the Iranian coastline. This assertion comes as US media reported on Sunday that eight US Marines sustained smoke inhalation and potential traumatic brain injuries on September 14, following an Iranian anti-ship cruise missile attack in the Strait of Hormuz. According to iran has, There will be no direct negotiations, and that it wants to use the June memorandum of understanding with Washington and the bilateral Hormuz deal finalised with Oman as baselines for a future agreement with. According to hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group,, He believes Iranian authorities are increasingly prepared to rely more heavily on attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz if the current diplomatic trac. “This does not necessarily mean that Tehran has already decided to launch a sustained campaign against US warships, but the threshold for doing so appears to have come down considerably,” he told. According to the expert, The Islamic Republic wants to prevent an assessment taking hold in Washington that Iranian leverage over Hormuz is declining and the US can normalise maritime traffic while keeping Iran economically isolated through sanctions and blockade.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) was contacted for comment regarding these reports but did not provide a response. CENTCOM had previously indicated that US vessels successfully evaded Iranian ballistic missile attacks earlier in the month. Officials cited in reports about the injured Marines clarified that the vessel involved in the attack was not a US Navy ship.
The Pentagon had previously This increased the total number of service members wounded since the war began on February 28 to 861, with at least 19 deaths also recorded. Increasing the total since the start of the war on February 28 to 861 service members, the Pentagon had earlier quietly added 29 US sailors and eight Marines to its list of war-wounded.
Iranian state-linked media recently claimed that US warships had withdrawn from their blockade positions earlier in September. These reports indicated that US forces, previously closer to Iran’s Chabahar port and the Gulf of Oman entrance, had moved further into the central Arabian Sea, reportedly to avoid Iranian missiles.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appeared to reference these US naval movements in a message published by state media on Monday. He stated that US forces are now refraining from further advancement “because of the painful blows they have suffered at the hands of the valiant fighters and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz.” Khamenei’s message added, “Whenever they have taken that risk, they have brought harm upon themselves,” and predicted, “And soon the Arabian Sea, too, will empty itself of them.”
Despite Iran’s claims, the US continues to maintain some form of naval blockade on Iran’s southern ports and has rejected Tehran’s latest proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts anticipate a controlled escalation, even if an all-out war is not immediately expected, given Tehran’s readiness for both defensive and offensive military action.
Maritime law and security expert Ian Ralby suggested that Iranian authorities are likely to continue targeting ships, a strategy that has served Tehran’s objectives during the conflict, similar to the success of Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen over nearly three years. Ralby, who is also president of the good governance nonprofit Auxilium Worldwide, said that missile and drone strikes enable weaker military powers to gain significant strategic advantages and impact global markets.
Ralby asserted, “It is fairly certain, therefore, that whether US personnel are on board or not, attacking ships will continue to be part of Iran’s approach to fighting, not only for its continued existence, but for its strategic regional hegemony.” He noted that while this may serve Iranian interests, it is unlikely to expedite a negotiated settlement.
This escalating rhetoric from Iranian authorities occurs as the US military has managed to increase energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, though the waterway has not returned to its pre-war unimpeded state. Despite the IRGC’s insistence that the strait remains closed to vessels without Iranian coordination, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported on Sunday that nearly 13 million barrels of crude were passing through daily. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provided a higher estimate of 15-22 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to approximately 20 million bpd before the war.
Bessent also claimed on Sunday that Iran was unable to export its own oil due to the blockade, leaving it with only about 15 million barrels stored at sea, which could be shipped to China within two weeks.
Preliminary data from Kpler on Monday indicated that crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz were expected to average 7.4 million bpd in September. The data and analytics company reported on Friday that 19 tankers, including 17 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) each capable of carrying two million barrels of oil, transited the strait in the week ending September 27.
Regional exports, including shipments from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran, rebounded to 12.8 million bpd in September, marking the highest level since the war’s commencement. Analysts on the Iranian state television program Be Vaght-e Iran acknowledged that evidence indicated at least seven million barrels of crude were passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
These analysts explained that Arab Gulf governments are employing shuttle systems, with US forces providing protection, to move oil out of the region. They noted that these state-backed arrangements allow them to avoid reliance on international insurance companies that charge high premiums. The system involves using older or less valuable VLCCs and other smaller vessels, which sometimes turn off their transponders and travel close to the Omani coast until exiting the strait. They then engage in ship-to-ship transfers before re-entering the waterway to reload.
Following US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, reports suggested that mediators were expected to facilitate further diplomatic exchanges between the two sides on Monday and throughout the week.
