It is currently the first week of August, yet millions of people are not reflexively checking their devices for hurricane updates or studying the latest storm models. This relative calm is notable because, according to Michael Lowry, a hurricane and storm surge expert with Miami’s Local 10, no other hurricane season has experienced such a sluggish start since 2009.
While this lack of activity provides a welcome reprieve for communities still recovering from previous storm damage, experts emphasize that the 2026 season’s slow beginning does not guarantee a quiet finish. The potential for significant weather events remains, and meteorologists are closely monitoring the Atlantic for any signs of development.
Colorado State University has released its Of these, four are expected to reach hurricane strength, with one projected to intensify into a major Category 3 storm or higher. This outlook suggests that seven additional named storms could form before the season officially concludes on Nov. 30.
To date, the National Hurricane Center has identified only two tropical storms in 2026: Arthur and Bertha. Both systems developed in the Gulf of Mexico, a region that often acts as a volatile variable even during El Niño years. In a typical season starting June 1, the third named storm usually appears by Aug. 3, and the first hurricane typically develops by Aug. 11. As of Aug. 5, the Atlantic basin remained entirely devoid of tropical storm activity.
The current lack of storms does not necessarily dictate future activity, though historical data suggests that the longer the basin remains quiet through August, the more likely the season will conclude with lower overall numbers. The season generally reaches its peak between mid-August and mid-October, with Sept. 10 recognized as the traditional peak date.
Comparatively, 2009 saw its first named storm on Aug. 11, resulting in only 10 total storms. In contrast, recent years have been significantly more active; by this time in 2024 and 2025, four named storms had already formed, and 2020 saw nine named storms by early August.
Two primary factors are currently influencing the Atlantic: the presence of El Niño and sea surface temperatures. Both are showing trends that favor reduced tropical activity. While satellite imagery shows warmer-than-normal water in the Pacific’s El Niño region, the Atlantic displays pockets of cooler-than-normal water, which generally inhibits storm formation.
Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami, noted that waters in the tropical East Atlantic are slightly cool, while the Caribbean remains fairly neutral and the Gulf of Mexico is only slightly warm. He described these conditions as unremarkable.
The Colorado State University team remains confident in its outlook, stating, “We are extremely confident that we will have a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season.” They added, “We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-normal water in the East and Central Pacific, typically generates hostile wind shear across the Atlantic’s main development region. McNoldy explained that we are currently in the early stages of this influence, noting that wind shear in the Caribbean is already stronger than average, effectively shutting down that portion of the Atlantic for the foreseeable future.
Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, noted in an Aug. 3 social media post that while a tropical wave might emerge from Africa, the environment remains largely unfavorable. He suggested that while more storms are likely, this could be the quietest Atlantic season since 2015, potentially rivaling the historically low activity seen in 2013.
For those interested in comparing activity, the Pacific has been far more active, producing seven named storms—five tropical storms and two hurricanes—as of Aug. 5. Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for with over 30 years of experience covering extreme weather, continues to track these developments. She can be reached at dpulver@.com, on Bluesky or X at @dinahvp, or via Signal at dinahvp.77.
But, even though the 2026 hurricane season is off to a slow start, that doesn’t mean it can’t still produce a lot of misery.
5, there wasn’t a tropical storm in sight.
11 and the season only produced 10 storms total, but most recent seasons have been far busier.
A dearth of storms doesn’t necessarily predict activity later in the season, Lowry wrote in his daily newsletter on Aug.
A particularly large pool of cooler water stretches eastward from the Windward Islands that fringe the eastern border of the Caribbean Sea.
It also brings changes in atmospheric circulation that tend to produce more sinking air that inhibits hurricane development.
“As time goes by and (El Niño) gets stronger, the impacts across the Atlantic will become more noticeable, primarily in the deep tropics.”
“But the background still looks pretty hostile, so it will be an uphill battle.”
“I’m sure we’ll get another few storms at some point, but all signs continue [to] point to this being the quietest Atlantic season since 2015, and quite possibly on par with 2013 and some of the other historically quiet seasons,” Hazelton said.
Given the way this El Niño is shaping up to be strong and linger into next year, McNoldy said it’s likely these impacts could have some effects on the 2027 hurricane season as well.
At the beginning of the season, NOAA predicted eight to 14 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher, with three to six becoming hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes.
NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
If you want to compare the Pacific storm activity to the Atlantic’s, pull up Google’s DeepMind tropical model and compare the number of dots that appear.
Over the next couple of weeks, a volley of blue dots race across the map in the Pacific, while only the occasional dot appears in the Atlantic.
Contributing: Kimberly Miller, Palm Beach Post
