United States President Donald Trump has officially declared his endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election bid. The move marks a notable shift, as the president had previously avoided offering a direct endorsement during earlier phases of the Israeli campaign cycle. Trump still wants a deal he can present as a victory.
In a message posted to his Truth Social account this past Sunday, Trump praised Netanyahu as a “great warrior prime minister and an even greater partner for peace.” Trump asserted that Iran has been “systematically destroyed both militarily and financially,” warning that unless the Iranian government alters its course, the U.S. will “soon finish the job.”
Addressing the political stakes, Trump suggested that if Israel were to choose a leader other than Netanyahu, the United States would be forced to carry the burden of military action alone, a scenario he expressed reluctance to pursue. According to “This is the kind of Partner that the United, Of America is demanding of Israel, a Country for which it has done so much. While Trump’s declaration of support for Netanyahu had signalled renewed political alignment with Israel and left the door open for future joint military action, it also makes it “harder for Trump to distance himself from the war or portray the US as having been reluctantly drawn into it”, vakil explained that.
He commended the Prime Minister’s resilience, stating that Netanyahu had thrived under intense pressure that would have caused others to wilt. “Please let this Letter serve to represent my Complete and Total Endorsement of Bibi Netanyahu in his upcoming Race for Re-Election as Prime Minister of Israel,” the President stated. He has endured and, in fact, he has thrived!”, despite all of that. BIBI NETANYAHU WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”, he added.
Israel’s national election is scheduled for October 27. Current polling data from Haaretz indicates a highly competitive race, with an opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party tracking at 52 projected seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition is estimated to hold 51 of the 120 Knesset seats. Neither bloc is currently positioned to secure an outright parliamentary majority. “Bibi Netanyahu has been Strong, Brave, and Brilliant in the face of tremendous opposition, including that coming from even Israel, itself. Potentially worth a seat or two in a close contest, but he cannot manufacture the coalition majority Netanyahu currently lacks,” Krieg told, trump may mobilise reluctant Likud voters. But be careful; we have unfinished jobs too,” he wrote.
This endorsement follows months of visible distance between the two leaders. During a recent interview with TIME magazine, Trump sidestepped questions regarding Netanyahu’s tenure, focusing instead on his own popularity in Israel. When queried by Newsmax last Thursday about his potential involvement in the election, Trump noted there was interest in his participation, though he previously remarked to the media that he does not personally trust anyone. When asked whether he trusted Netanyahu, Trump replied, “I don’t trust anybody, honestly”.
Analysts suggest the endorsement holds significant weight for Netanyahu’s campaign. Sanam Vakil of the Chatham House think tank described the move as “politically significant” because it allows Netanyahu to emphasize his necessity in maintaining the U.S.-Israel relationship. However, she cautioned that the impact on voters remains uncertain given the deep divisions in Israel over the ongoing conflict with Iran. Without Washington having to offer significant concessions first,” he argued, trump’s calculation is that Iran will eventually accept nuclear concessions and reopen Hormuz.
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London, characterized the endorsement as a “political gift” to a struggling campaign. He noted that while it might help mobilize hesitant Likud supporters, it does not solve the underlying structural issues in the Israeli coalition, such as the fragmentation of right-wing parties and disillusionment among ultra-Orthodox voters. “Netanyahu’s problems are structural, involving fragmented right-wing parties, disillusioned ultra-Orthodox voters and the legacy of October 7.
The timing of the endorsement has intensified concerns about potential military escalations in the Iran war, which has been in a stalemate since February. Reports from Axios citing U.S. and Israeli officials suggest that Trump and Netanyahu have discussed a major new operation against Iran ahead of the upcoming elections in both nations. While Trump has stated he would not initiate attacks before the U.S. midterm elections, reports indicate the Pentagon has prepared plans to resume strikes.
The conflict has significantly impacted global oil transit. The Strait of Hormuz, previously a conduit for 20 percent of global crude, remains a flashpoint. Following a period where U.S. naval escorts helped restore oil traffic, a recent surge in Iranian attacks on vessels has again disrupted exports. On Monday, Brent crude futures were priced at $107.57 per barrel, following a brief spike to $110 late last week. On Monday morning, Brent crude futures stood at $107.57 a barrel, down slightly after reaching their highest since May 19 on Friday, when they briefly touched $110 a barrel. Oil traffic last month through the strait picked up to pre-war levels as the US Navy shepherded an increasing number of tankers.
Diplomatic efforts to secure the waterway have stalled. Although Iran proposed a seven-day window to reopen the strait based on specific conditions—including the lifting of sanctions and the end of the U.S. naval blockade—negotiations failed to gain traction. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the proposal remains active, but he also launched a sharp critique of the Israeli Prime Minister. Writing on X, Araghchi accused Netanyahu of pushing for a new war with the U.S. primarily to “stay out of jail.”
Krieg observed that while the threat of escalation remains, the immediate likelihood of a massive new strike is low, provided there is no Iranian action that mandates a defensive response. He noted that the most critical window of risk will likely open after November 3, once U.S. electoral constraints are removed. Currently, the U.S. strategy appears to rely on the naval blockade, which remains a primary source of “coercive leverage” against Tehran, under the belief that time is trending in Washington’s favor. “The more dangerous window opens after November 3 [US midterms], when those electoral constraints disappear. The danger is that Tehran increasingly believes it must escalate to improve its bargaining position.”.
