Daniela Schmidt, a geologist at the University of Buenos Aires, was shaken by the devastating flash floods that swept through Nepal on August 26. Watching the destruction of entire communities, she realized the event was one of the most catastrophic of its kind globally. Her professional perspective has shifted significantly since observing these events, as she now re-evaluates the risks closer to home at Laguna Torre in Argentina’s Santa Cruz province.
For years, researchers have monitored the potential for a glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF, in the vicinity of El Chaltén. Schmidt’s studies suggest that if the northern slope of the 2,121-meter-tall Cerro Solo granite peak were to collapse into the basin, the resulting surge of water could be devastating. Her projections estimate a massive volume of water, debris, logs, and sediment could travel the 8-kilometer distance to the town within just 20 minutes. Under these conditions, the discharge could reach 1,769 cubic meters per second, overwhelming the Fitz Roy River and destroying the town’s primary access bridge.
While some models suggest a slightly more conservative timeline of 45 to 60 minutes for the flow to reach the town, officials are treating the situation with high priority. Enrique Rivero, the town’s secretary of government, emphasized that the local administration is actively preparing for this worst-case scenario. Schmidt warns that while a specific date or time for such an event cannot be predicted, it is a geological inevitability that society must prepare for.
The threat is exacerbated by the physical changes in the landscape. Between 1952 and 2023, the Torre glacier thinned by 60 to 70 meters and lost roughly 4 square kilometers of its surface area. As the ice retreats, the pressure on surrounding slopes shifts, a process researchers refer to as a “release of stress.” Between 2002 and 2023, the speed of material movement on the slopes doubled, and during periods of extreme heat or heavy rain, the movement accelerates in pulses. Scientific models suggest that landslides involving 8 to 13 million cubic meters of material could create a wave in the lake reaching up to 5.8 meters high.
The risk extends beyond the physical destruction of the river bridge, which serves as the town’s only land connection. Critical infrastructure, including schools, homes, gas plants, and power facilities, sits within the potential flood path. Paula Chaparro, a member of the El Chaltén Mountain Rescue Committee, noted that if an event occurred during the peak tourist season between December and February, more than 27,000 residents and visitors could find themselves completely stranded without heating, as the gas supply from the capital of Santa Cruz, Río Gallegos, would be severed.
Despite the known risks, there is some local tension regarding public discourse. Some residents fear that openly discussing the threat of GLOFs could deter tourism, which the town relies on heavily. Chaparro argues that shutting down operations is not the correct approach; instead, the community should focus on risk management through education, alternative activities, and remaining alert rather than acting out of fear.
Local authorities, including park superintendent Horacio Pelozo, are collaborating with scientists to better understand the evolving threat. While initial studies were not considered alarming, the discovery of a second body of water forming within Laguna Torre due to sustained melting has heightened concerns. The municipality has already begun dredging the river channel and clearing debris from beneath the bridge, though experts warn that water levels could rise by as much as 5 meters in a worst-case scenario.
For Schmidt, the tragedy in Nepal serves as a stark reminder of the new reality facing mountain communities. She maintains that the responsibility lies in protecting both the local population and the influx of tourists. As the region continues to experience shifting glacial landscapes, the goal remains to build resilience and maintain the town’s safety without abandoning its identity as a hub for tourism. The report also notes that the aftermath of the Nepal floods in Nuwakot district, 26 August. The report also notes that the shock deepened as the first geological figures emerged: the volume of glacier ice and rock that had collapsed and the scale of the resulting flow. The report also notes that schmidt began comparing them with the cases she had studied during her PhD. The report also notes that she realised, had reached anything close to this magnitude, very few glacial lake outburst floods. The report also notes that but Nepal also changed the way she saw her own work. The report also notes that models, flood simulations and maps, the disaster already exists on her computer screen: data. The report also notes that the discharge could reach 1,769 cubic metres (62,472 cubic feet) a second, rushing down the Fitz Roy River towards the town and inundating its only access bridge and other critical infrastructure. The report also notes that “You can’t say it will happen on a specific day or at a specific time, but society needs to be prepared,” Schmidt warns. “It is going to happen.”.
