A surge in military hostilities across northern Ethiopia has drawn multiple armed factions into a deepening conflict against the federal government. The violence, centered initially in the Tigray region, has expanded into neighbouring Afar and Amhara, with both federal authorities and regional groups accusing one another of triggering the current escalation.
Abdisalam Balema, a central committee member for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), stated that an offensive began in southern Tigray, escalating quickly into what he described as a “full war.” The Tigray Army reported that the federal government deployed infantry, mechanised units, and drones to launch a “full-scale offensive.” In response, Tigrayan forces initiated counter-offensives and seized control of regional airports, forcing Ethiopian Airlines to suspend all flights into the region. Local reports additionally suggest the capture of Abala, a district capital within the Afar region.
Getachew Reda, a former senior TPLF official who currently serves as an advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, rejected the TPLF’s narrative. He attributed the outbreak of violence to the TPLF itself, dismissing concerns about the longevity of the opposition alliance by stating he does not “lose sleep” over it. Government spokeswoman Billene Seyoum added that the coalition members had been collaborating with external financial backing, a claim the TPLF has denied.
This renewed fighting follows the recent formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance, a coalition that includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the Oromo Liberation Army, along with various movements from the Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. While these groups possess historically divergent grievances, they have aligned under a political charter aimed at ousting Prime Minister Abiy’s administration to establish a transitional government.
Regional analyst Faisal Roble noted that the Pretoria agreement, which concluded the two-year Tigray war in November 2022, effectively “changed the equation” by alienating various regional actors. The aftermath of that agreement saw internal fractures within the TPLF, specifically between those who supported the peace settlement—like Reda—and a faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael that sought to repair ties with former rivals, including Fano fighters in Amhara.
Balema acknowledged that the alliance faces internal hurdles, such as competing territorial claims over western Tigray, but emphasized that the groups are currently focused on their shared existential threat. “We don’t want a repeat of 2020,” Balema said, while also denying reports that the alliance receives military aid from Sudan or Eritrea. Officials from the Sudanese military-aligned government recently stated they have no desire to be involved in an Ethiopian conflict.
The humanitarian stakes remain high. United Nations migration data indicates that approximately 750,000 people were already internally displaced in Tigray prior to this latest wave of fighting. While the regional bloc IGAD has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to dialogue, observers warn that the situation is becoming increasingly difficult to contain.
Oromo opposition politician Jawar Mohammed cautioned that Ethiopia could evolve into an “incongruent battlefield” where wider regional rivalries play out. Despite the intensity of the current clashes, Prime Minister Abiy has maintained a stance of defiance, recently telling lawmakers that Ethiopia does not fear for its sovereignty regardless of the opposition arrayed against the state. The report also notes that “They’re carrying out strikes in many places. The report also notes that but we will assess it.”, we are not sure of the extent of it or whether they will continue. The report also notes that but he was describing the start of a major military escalation, balema did not know it then. The report also notes that a day later, Balema said that the situation had become a “full war”. The report also notes that bringing together movements with very different histories and grievances against the central government, including forces with bitter histories of conflict among themselves, the alliance marked a striking realignment that had been almost a year in the making. The report also notes that the alliance said the federal government was attacking its member forces on several fronts and presented their response as part of the broader struggle that had brought the coalition together, in a statement issued as the fighting widened on Wednesday.
