Eritrea has formally severed diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, a move that signals a collapse in the rapprochement between the two nations and deepens concerns over a regional security crisis. This diplomatic break follows a decision by Addis Ababa to close its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats, prompting Eritrea to declare it had no choice but to reciprocate in kind. Ethiopia rejects those allegations.
In an official statement, the Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned Ethiopia for what it termed an agenda of incessant hostility, specifically accusing the Ethiopian government of infringing upon its coastal regions and providing support to factions opposing Eritrean rule. Conversely, Ethiopia has leveled its own accusations, claiming that Eritrea is fueling instability by backing the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which currently spearheads the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. Both sides have rejected the other’s accusations. According to despite the pro-government advances, Tawakel, Rebel forces still maintain what he described as a “strong rear link with Eritrea” along the countries’ border.
The current hostilities in northern Ethiopia represent the most severe military engagement since the conclusion of the 2020-2022 civil war, a conflict that resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths. Intense fighting is currently concentrated across the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions. According to reports from the area, Ethiopian federal forces have gained ground in Tigray, pushing toward the regional capital of Mekelle, while pro-government groups in Afar recently claimed to have recaptured the town of Erebti with air support. According to bureau chief in Ethiopia, Mohammed Taha Tawakel,, Forces loyal to the federal government have made significant gains in the Tigray region, taking control of several towns and closing in on the regional capital, Mekelle.
The instability is already showing signs of regional contagion. Beyond the borders, Ethiopia’s diplomatic friction has expanded to include Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopia has accused both nations of supporting Tigrayan rebels, further complicating long-standing disputes such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, which Egypt views as a significant threat to its Nile water security. In a tit-for-tat move, Ethiopia and Egypt have both expelled diplomats, with Cairo characterizing the move as regrettable and asserting that it responded based on the principle of reciprocity. The ripple effects could go further, potentially fuelling broader unrest in a region already plagued by numerous interrelated conflicts, analysts warn, but this time.
Conflict dynamics are also increasingly affecting Sudan, as its military-led government engages in a civil war while simultaneously accusing Ethiopia of arming domestic opposition forces. Ahmed Soliman of Chatham House noted that the conflicts in Ethiopia and Sudan have become deeply interconnected, with competing governments accusing one another of facilitating the movement and equipment of rebel groups across their shared borders.
The threat of further escalation is not limited to traditional military maneuvers. On Thursday, an explosion occurred at the Ethiopian Ministry of Defence in Addis Ababa, which diplomatic sources suspect was caused by small drones. While the national military maintains a superior drone fleet, conflict monitors like ACLED have noted that rebel forces have successfully utilized similar technology to target airports and airbases throughout the country. After Addis Ababa earlier kicked out an Egyptian diplomat, Egyptian state-linked media reported, cairo ordered an Ethiopian diplomat to leave the country on Thursday.
Observers are increasingly worried that these skirmishes could spiral into a wider conflagration. Laura Hammond, a professor at SOAS University of London, warned that the risks of the conflict spreading are already manifesting through active alignments between states and non-state actors. She highlighted the high likelihood of increased direct Eritrean involvement on the ground in Tigray should the situation persist.
Martin Plaut, an analyst specializing in the Horn of Africa, emphasized the volatility of the current environment, stating that the situation is so fragile that it would only require a single spark to engulf multiple nations, including Sudan, in a broader war. The shift in relations marks a sharp departure from 2018, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed initially sought to normalize ties with Eritrea, even securing its support during the earlier Tigray conflict.
The current diplomatic rupture appears driven by Prime Minister Abiy’s persistent push for direct sea access for landlocked Ethiopia—an ambition that officials in Asmara interpret as an existential threat and a declaration of territorial hostility. As the fighting continues, observers remain wary that the combination of deep-seated historical grievances and new geopolitical tensions could lead to a protracted period of regional instability.
