Following the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats secured majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Out of 35 Senate seats featured on the ballot, 33 races have been officially projected, with Democratic candidates claiming victory in 20 of those contests. This total includes victories in eight states that had backed President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, as voters flipped seven previously Republican-held Senate seats to Democratic control. But the opposite was true for Democratic candidates. Democrats Subvert Democracy to Save It.
As of November 4, with 99 percent of the vote accounted for, Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi remain uncalled and are classified as toss-ups. Elsewhere across the country, electoral performance shifted significantly compared to the presidential figures established two years earlier.
Even in states where Republican incumbents managed to hold their seats, their final margins of victory contracted noticeably relative to 2024. In West Virginia, where Mr. Trump carried the state by 42 percentage points in 2024, Republican incumbent Sen. Shelly Moore Capito won reelection by about 20 points, effectively cutting the previous winning margin in half.
Similar trends for Republicans emerged in other conservative strongholds. Alabama’s Barry Moore won his Senate contest by approximately 9 points, down from Mr. Trump’s more than 30-point victory margin in 2024. In Florida, where Mr. Trump previously won by 13 points, GOP Sen. Ashley Moody secured reelection by a narrower 3-point margin.
Conversely, Democratic Senate candidates outperformed the 2024 top-of-ticket results. While Kamala Harris carried Rhode Island by around 14 points in 2024, Democratic Sen. Jack Reed won reelection in the 2026 midterms by a 37-point margin. Across all states where Democrats won Senate races, their average winning margins were twice as large as Harris’ margins in the 2024 presidential contest.
In contrast, the average winning margins for successful Republicans were half the size of Mr. Trump’s 2024 state victories. In every state where voters switched party preference between the 2024 presidential election and the 2026 Senate races, the seats flipped to Democrats, who achieved an average swing of roughly 20 points. Specific flips included Jon Ossoff retaining his Georgia seat for Democrats, alongside James Talarico winning in Texas to flip a Senate seat to Democratic control. Detailed comparisons covering every 2026 Senate race alongside 2024 presidential margins, as well as flipped House districts, remain highlighted in election tracking data compiled with contributions from John Kelly. Use the table below to look through every 2026 Senate race compared to the 2024 presidential race margins.
