Across the Asia-Pacific region, government leaders and corporate stakeholders are closely observing the United States midterm elections. The outcome holds significant weight for a region currently struggling with the economic fallout of the conflict in Iran and the impact of aggressive US trade policies. Much of the region was left facing shortages, when Iran closed the chokepoint in response to the US and Israel’s strikes.
Many regional analysts suggest that stakeholders are seeking “enormous changes” regarding President Donald Trump’s approach to tariffs and the ongoing war in the Middle East. Despite this desire for reform, experts remain skeptical that a shift in congressional control will lead to immediate alterations in policy.
Trade specialist Steven Okun, CEO of Singapore-based APAC Advisors, described the political landscape as “great political theatre,” noting that while attention is high, the actual influence of the midterms on foreign policy may be limited. Outside of the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific has been hit particularly hard by the conflict in Iran, which disrupted vital oil and gas transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Asia was again hit harder than most.
The impact of the war has been severe. The Philippines, which depends on the Gulf for over 90 percent of its crude oil imports, has been operating under a national energy emergency since March. Meanwhile, rising fuel costs have depleted foreign exchange reserves in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and East Timor. To protect consumers from soaring energy prices, countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have implemented costly fuel subsidy programs.
Regarding the prospect of a Democratic-controlled Congress forcing a resolution to the war, experts are doubtful. Okun suggested that while a new Congress might initiate oversight hearings or even impeachment proceedings against the secretary of defense, these actions are unlikely to change the underlying impact of the conflict. Because Trump has framed the attacks on Iran as defensive measures, he has largely bypassed congressional opposition, and overriding a potential presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority that the Democrats are unlikely to secure. Even with the Democrats poised to take the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate, from Trump’s Republican Party, but few expect that to happen. Under the US Constitution, Congress holds the power to formally declare war, but Trump has claimed the attacks on Iran were in self-defence and has so far ignored congressional resolutions directing him to withdraw US forces from hostilities. If a Democrat-controlled Congress passes legislation restricting military operations or cutting funding for them, Trump can veto it. “The Democrats have a poor record of effectively opposing and holding Trump accountable using conventional tools of congressional oversight,” Guild said. “We will have to wait and see if they rise to the moment this time.
The outlook for trade policy is similarly rigid.
Last year, the administration imposed reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10 to 50 percent on approximately 90 countries in an effort to reduce the trade deficit.
Smaller economies were hit particularly hard, with Cambodia facing a 49 percent tariff, Laos at 48 percent, Vietnam at 46 percent, and Myanmar at 45 percent. Although the Supreme Court invalidated these measures in February, the administration introduced new tariffs in July, targeting 60 trading partners—including China, Japan, South Korea, and seven Southeast Asian nations—over concerns related to forced labor. The Trump administration turned to other tools, after the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs in February. In July, it imposed tariffs of 10 percent and 12.5 percent on goods from 60 trading partners, accusing them of failing to stop imports made with forced labour. That, Olson wrote, offers “a glimmer of hope” for Southeast Asian countries that depend on the US market.
Some analysts see a potential, though narrow, opportunity for change. Stephen Olson, a fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, noted that a strong rebuke of current trends at the polls could embolden a pro-free-trade faction within the Republican Party that has previously been hesitant to speak out. This could lead to select carve-outs or exemptions for exporters, though any comprehensive restructuring of US trade policy will likely remain deferred until the 2028 presidential election.
For Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations, the regional agenda extends beyond trade into security. Asia-Pacific nations are seeking more stability in security guarantees and a clearer US presence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, where territorial tensions remain high. A significant loss for the Republican party might prompt greater willingness among lawmakers to challenge the administration on economic unpredictability, arms sales, and trade, he added. To preserve the fragile trade truce, Trump has also held off approving a $14bn package of arms sales to Taiwan, which would be the largest ever for Taipei.
One area where legislative action is considered inevitable is the domain of Chinese technology. According to Okun, regardless of which party secures control in the midterms, the next Congress is expected to pass stricter regulations, such as the Remote Access Security Act and the Chip Security Act. These measures aim to restrict the remote access of US software and verify that advanced artificial intelligence chips are not diverted to foreign adversaries. Known as the MATCH Act, which would press allies to bring their controls on chipmaking equipment in line with Washington’s, to keep advanced chipmaking technology out of China’s hands, it also includes the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act.
Ultimately, the region remains cautious. As James Guild of the Indonesian International Islamic University observed, continued erratic foreign policy is a distinct possibility, and the historical ability of the opposition to hold the administration accountable through traditional oversight remains unproven.
