Tehran, Iran – Iranian authorities are currently weighing a finalized arrangement with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, though top officials maintain that the strategic waterway’s full reopening will hinge on specific concessions from the United States. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Saturday that the agreement with Oman is “very close,” but cautioned that a full restoration of transit depends on the US adhering to commitments outlined in a June memorandum of understanding (MoU) that Tehran claims have been violated.
Iran has previously criticized Washington for supporting a southern Omani route in the waterway without coordination with Tehran, failing to halt Israeli military operations in Lebanon, and refusing to unfreeze Iranian assets held abroad due to sanctions. In a recent televised interview, President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized that he would “strongly defend” the MoU signed with the US in June. He also rejected persistent speculation that he would abandon his office, despite claims from hardliners that he has used the threat of resignation as a strategic tool to combat domestic opponents who oppose a diplomatic resolution with the United States.
Separately on Saturday, Hossein Mohebbi, spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), told state media that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz “has its own specific mechanism and has nothing to do with the negotiations between Iran and Oman.” He added that the US will have no choice but to accede to “conditions” set by the Islamic Republic to reopen the strategic strait, which the IRGC views not merely as an economic waterway, but as a critical source of power tied to Iran’s geography that it intends to leverage.
The IRGC spokesperson urged the administration of US President Donald Trump not to “interfere” in the talks with Oman, which he noted have “nearly reached their conclusion.” On Friday, the spokesperson for the national security commission of Iran’s hardline-dominated parliament also confirmed that the framework of an arrangement with Oman over the strait had been agreed upon, with a deal expected soon. Hassan Qashqavi noted that the final decision remains pending a green light from “higher levels” of the Iranian government.
Iran and Oman have officially agreed on the specific coordinates of routes to be taken by vessels through the waterway as part of this arrangement. Under the plan, inbound traffic is designated to pass through a northern lane within Iranian territorial waters, while outbound traffic will transit through a southern lane in Omani waters, fully coordinated with Tehran. US media reports suggest the interim agreement is envisaged for an initial 60-day period and can be extended. These reports also highlight ongoing discussions regarding naval mine clearance from a central corridor, the passage of military vessels, and the potential implementation of a coordinated fee system for passing ships.
Significant questions remain regarding the status of the US naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports and the potential withdrawal of US military assets. Iran has stated that these actions are necessary prerequisites for the full reopening of the strait, a passage through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil passes during peacetime. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated earlier that a joint statement could be expected with Oman if a deal is reached to restore traffic, which has been largely disrupted since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.
Even more ambiguous are the prospects for a broader long-term resolution that would address the future of Iran’s nuclear program and years of harsh economic sanctions. In the UAE, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement condemning the targeting of commercial shipping, noting that using the strait “as a tool of economic coercion or blackmail represents acts of piracy” by the IRGC and constitutes a direct threat to regional stability.
Regional tensions remain high as the Houthis launched a deadly attack on Friday in an area of Marib controlled by the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized Yemeni government. The Yemeni government announced a military response on several fronts on Saturday. Additionally, the Yemeni group struck southwestern Saudi Arabia’s Najran on Thursday, just one day after claiming two separate attacks on Saudi oil tankers.
Despite these regional conflicts, global energy markets have welcomed the increasing prospects of a diplomatic agreement that could positively affect the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude trading at approximately $83 per barrel at Friday’s close. Markets inside Iran also reacted positively on Saturday, the first day of the working week, with the national currency strengthening to 1.85 million rials against the US dollar, recovering from all-time lows of 1.94 million reached last week.
The main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange also climbed by 112,000 points, or just over 2 percent, to reach 5.52 million, nearing an all-time high. The government continues to balance these economic indicators with the hardline rhetoric of the IRGC, which remains skeptical of US intentions. The administration of President Pezeshkian is under intense pressure to deliver tangible economic relief while navigating the complex security requirements demanded by the military establishment.
As the diplomatic window remains open, international observers are closely watching the coordination between Muscat and Tehran. The success of the Omani-brokered arrangement is viewed as a litmus test for whether the US and Iran can move beyond the current impasse. Whether this leads to a lasting de-escalation or remains a temporary tactical adjustment remains the central uncertainty for regional security and global energy markets alike.
Even more ambiguous are prospects of a broader long-term resolution that will also address the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, as well as years of harsh US sanctions over nuclear enrichment that have exacerbated econ
Some ships have resorted to turning off their transponders to avoid being detected.
