The 2026 midterm elections underscored a massive shift in how campaigns secure victory, with Democratic Senate candidates in multiple states building insurmountable leads before Election Day polls even opened. In key races across Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, the sheer volume of early and absentee ballots cast for Democrats meant these candidates would have secured wins even if not a single additional voter had participated on Election Day. In particular, the stats reinforce just how crucial the early vote is to Democrats.
In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff commanded a lead of 18 percentage points. State records indicate he secured approximately 1,772,000 votes through early and absentee methods alone, surpassing the 1,712,000 total votes cast for his challenger, Republican Rep. Mike Collins. In each race, the Democrat appears to have won by 10 or more percentage points.
Texas saw a significant political milestone as Democratic Sen.-elect James Talarico achieved a double-digit victory in a state that had not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Talarico’s strategy relied heavily on early participation, with over 80% of his total vote count arriving before the final day of polling. His early total of 4.4 million votes outperformed the 4.25 million total votes tallied for Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
North Carolina’s Senate race also highlighted this trend, as former Gov. Roy Cooper defeated Republican challenger Michael Whatley by a 20-point margin. Cooper became the first Democrat elected to the Senate in the state since 2008. His success was driven by early in-person voting, where he gathered 1,728,000 votes, exceeding the 1,643,000 total votes Whatley received across all voting methods combined. And Cooper is currently winning by 20 points, president Donald Trump came to the state repeatedly to try to help Whatley.
These patterns were mirrored in Arizona, where Gov. Katie Hobbs maintained an 11-point lead in her reelection bid. Current figures show Hobbs with over 1 million early votes compared to 960,000 total votes for Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, though these totals remain subject to change with roughly 86% of the state’s ballots counted. Though, as the state has counted an estimated 86% of its vote, those numbers could shift.
The data highlights a widening strategic gap, as Democratic voters consistently showed a higher propensity for early and mail-in voting compared to their Republican counterparts. For instance, in North Carolina, roughly 73% of Cooper’s support was generated outside of the final day of voting.
These results are particularly noteworthy given that several of these contests were previously projected to be highly competitive. While Texas is traditionally a Republican stronghold, the other states are recognized presidential swing states, demonstrating how early vote mobilization can effectively lock up significant races well ahead of the official conclusion of the election cycle.
