Major US oil and gas corporations have collectively pocketed more than $130 billion in profits during the ongoing war on Iran. This windfall arrives as domestic consumers face significantly higher costs for essential fuel and energy products, with political tensions mounting as the nation approaches midterm elections. “In the short term, windfall profits will only strengthen oil company balance sheets and shareholder returns,” Miller said. “However, the big profits come with a major caveat.
A conservative analysis of 51 large US energy firms, conducted by The New York Times, evaluated financial performance between April and September. This figure stands in stark contrast to the same period in 2025, before the current conflict began, when those same companies recorded total earnings of less than $47 billion. While the gains are considerable, The New York Times found they generally remained below 2022 levels, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused oil prices to soar to roughly $100 a barrel and raised natural gas prices, co. According to exxonMobil and Chevron, the biggest US oil companies, on Friday, Profits of between $10bn and $15bn. While the gains are considerable, The New York Times found they generally remained below 2022 levels, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused oil prices to soar to roughly $100 a barrel and raised natural gas prices, compared with the current average of $90 from April through September. Commodity prices are set to rise 23 percent this year, as disrupted grain shipments and the El Nino weather phenomenon also threaten harvests and food, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. According to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, On October 2 that world food commodity prices rose a further 1.5 percent in September, after reaching their highest level since late 2022 in August, amid adverse. The US president has argued that a deal with Russia reversing years of sanctions would help lower diesel prices.
The financial disparity has intensified domestic political debates regarding the true cost of the conflict. Democratic Representative Jim McGovern recently challenged rhetoric from US President Donald Trump regarding the industry’s success, stating on social media that Americans are not gaining a fortune but are instead paying one. The disparity has fuelled a political debate over who gains and who pays the price for the war.
Data from Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab indicates that since the conflict launched on February 28, US households have spent an additional $150 billion on petrol and diesel. This translates to an average burden of more than $1,150 per household, complicating the domestic cost-of-living crisis.
Industry analysts explain that US firms are uniquely positioned to capitalize on global supply-side shocks. Naser al-Tamimi of the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) notes that while crude producers benefit directly from elevated market prices, domestic refiners are capturing exceptional margins as fuel supplies tighten worldwide. Analysts warned of continued volatility until a durable political settlement between the US and Iran is reached.
Operational security further shields American companies. While facilities in the Middle East and Russia have sustained heavy damage, US infrastructure remains largely secure. Combined with access to discounted crude, these factors have bolstered domestic performance. For instance, Valero Energy saw its third-quarter profit surge more than sixfold to $6.83 billion, and Phillips 66 reported a record net income of $5.62 billion, a massive leap from $133 million the previous year. US Big Oil in position to profit where others lose. With net income jumping to $5.62bn from $133m a year earlier, phillips 66 announced its highest quarterly profit on record.
Geopolitical instability remains the primary engine for these trends. The conflict has triggered the largest supply-side shock in recent memory. Beyond damage to foreign refineries, Iranian forces have targeted energy infrastructure across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. An independent monitor, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project, has documented at least 172 attacks on non-military energy assets in the region. Tehran retaliated against the US-Israeli attack by launching missiles and drones at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have further restricted the global energy flow. The subsequent US naval blockade on Iranian exports has created a high-risk environment for maritime transit. According to experts, the conflict has generated a persistent risk premium that US-based operators are structurally prepared to monetize, whereas Gulf producers face both physical damage and operational hurdles. Iran also effectively blocked passage of most vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian oil and gas – the tit-for-tat steps raising the risks of transporting energy out of the crucial passageway, in retaliation.
The economic outlook remains volatile. While there was a brief cooling of prices in the summer following a temporary memorandum of understanding, talks subsequently collapsed. The situation is further complicated by escalations between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces near the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical artery for oil exports connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. But prices quickly soared again when talks broke down, oil prices dropped briefly in the summer after a memorandum of understanding was signed in June.
Strategic analysts warn that these windfall profits for shareholders carry significant long-term risks. High energy prices threaten to dampen overall economic growth and could potentially trigger a recession. Such a contraction would likely reduce long-term oil demand and accelerate the industry-wide transition toward renewable energy sources.
Florence Schmit, a senior energy strategist at Rabobank, suggests that consumers should prepare for sustained financial pressure. Without direct government intervention, the uncertainty surrounding the war’s duration ensures that key energy products will remain expensive throughout the coming year, as global markets continue to grapple with the ongoing supply shock.
