The influence of the pro-Israel establishment in Washington is facing an unprecedented challenge as US voters and lawmakers increasingly distance themselves from the nation’s traditional bipartisan consensus. This shift was underscored this month when Abdul El-Sayed secured a victory in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, despite facing nearly $65 million in advertising opposition, much of it channeled through the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) to support Rep. Haley Stevens.
El-Sayed’s campaign, which explicitly characterized Israel’s military actions in Gaza as genocide, resonated with voters who rejected the party’s traditional donor-backed candidate. This electoral outcome reflects a broader trend within Congress, where legislative support for Israel is becoming increasingly fragile. In July, 103 House Democrats supported an amendment by Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie to cut $3.3 billion in military aid—a significant increase from the 37 Democrats who backed a similar measure two years prior.
The Senate has seen a parallel evolution. In April, 40 out of 47 Senate Democrats voted to block a $450 million arms package, citing concerns over Israel’s conduct in Gaza and Iran. This figure marks a steady rise from 27 votes the previous July and only 15 the year before that. While these measures have yet to pass, the margins of defeat are narrowing, signaling a structural change in legislative sentiment.
Public opinion appears to be driving this legislative pivot. According to an August Economist/YouGov poll, 45 percent of American voters now believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians, compared to 31 percent who disagree. Gallup data shows a stark decline in approval for Israel’s campaign, which has dropped from 50 percent to 32 percent, while disapproval has climbed to 60 percent. Among Democrats, the shift is even more pronounced, with approval of Israeli conduct falling to just 8 percent.
Historical data highlights the scale of this reversal. In 2001, over half of Democratic voters expressed sympathy for Israel, while only 16 percent sided with Palestinians. Today, those figures have essentially inverted, with 59 percent of Democrats now siding with Palestinians. This erosion of support is also noted among American Jews, according to Alon Liel, the former director general of the Israeli foreign ministry.
Liel attributes this change to American fatigue regarding the Israeli-Arab conflict and the perception that Israel is no longer the underdog. “It has worsened as a result of the casualties and damage inflicted on Gaza and illegal settler violence in the occupied West Bank,” Liel told. He further noted that the decline of AIPAC’s influence is being accelerated by the rise of groups like J Street, which provide a counterbalancing force.
Since October 2023, the scale of the conflict has been immense, with the territory’s Health Ministry reporting that Israel has killed more than 73,000 Palestinians and wounded over 174,000. The visual reality of the destruction, including mass displacement and documented starvation, has reached global audiences in real time, fueling the domestic political shift.
Within the Republican Party, the movement is different but measurable. While traditional GOP support remains stronger, younger Republicans are showing increased skepticism. Unfavorable views of Israel among Republicans under 50 have risen from 35 percent to 50 percent over three years, largely driven by a desire to avoid further US intervention in Middle Eastern conflicts.
This “America First” sentiment is being amplified by prominent figures such as Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Megyn Kelly. While these voices have not yet unseated Republican incumbents, they have successfully introduced a new level of skepticism toward Israel within the MAGA media ecosystem.
Yossi Shain, an Israeli international relations scholar and former Knesset member, has characterized Israel as a “toxic brand” in Washington. Former CIA officer John Kiriakou offered a more blunt assessment, stating that Israel has “lost the American public” and the military, warning that the US will not continue to fight Israel’s wars indefinitely.
The institutional power that once made unconditional support for Israel a bipartisan requirement is visibly weakening. As Liel observed, the growing criticism from Europe is also reinforcing these changing American attitudes. This trend, he suggests, is likely to persist until there is a fundamental change in Israeli policy and behavior.
Ultimately, both major US parties are arriving at a similar conclusion from different ideological directions. As the institutions that once maintained the bipartisan consensus struggle to contain the fallout from the war in Gaza, the political landscape in Washington continues to undergo a significant and potentially lasting transformation. The report also notes that against 31 percent who disagree, and this margin holds across Democrats, i, an Economist/YouGov poll conducted in August found that 45 percent of American voters believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians. The report also notes that whose support for continued military aid dropped from 55 percent to 43 percent in a single year, while their approval of Israeli conduct in Gaza has fallen to just 8 percen, the steepest collapse has come among Democrats. The report also notes that in 2001, more than half of Democratic voters said their sympathies lay with Israel, against 16 percent who sided with the Palestinians; those figures have essentially inverted, with 59 percent of Democrats now siding wit. The report also notes that if more unevenly, congress has been arriving at a version of the same verdict for months. The report also notes that but each failed by a narrower margin than the last, each of these measures failed.
